Scandpower - Blowout risk analysis

Blowout risk analysis

Applied during the design phase of a platform/rig or for future well operations on existing units.

Blowout risk analyses cover a wide range of purposes from providing input to Quantitative Risk Analysis or Safety Cases, input to Environmental Risk Analysis or Emergency Preparedness Planning as well as detailed analysis of specific well operations. A blowout risk analysis should consider equipment, procedures, well formation properties and management to reflect today's risk level compared to what the statistics represent.

BlowFAM tool

BlowFAM is a PC tool developed to support the risk assessment of blowouts. The tool was developed in 1995 by Scandpower, in close co-operation with drilling and well intervention professionals from several oil companies (see sponsor list). The tool covers risk rated elements within drilling, well interventions and production, e.g. hardware, well configuration, operating procedures, planning/organisation, field specific conditions like formation properties. The outcome of a BlowFAM assessment are blowout frequencies derived specific for well operations and fields of interest, lists of identified cost-efficient risk-reducing elements, flow path distributions, probabilities of tailor-made blowout scenarios and frequencies of oil spill quantities.

The tool is accompanied by a user manual and a report describing theory and details of the model. In addition to this, a report documenting the historical blowout frequencies for all types of well operations is distributed once a year in connection with updated statistics provided by SINTEF. The historical blowout frequencies used in BlowFAM have become the industry standard on the Norwegian continental shelf.

BlowFAM focus points

Blowout and well release frequencies for all types of well operations, offshore and onshore
Normal and HPHT wells
Formation properties like pore pressure, lost circulation zones etc.
Relevant blowout causes
Risk elements related to equipment, procedures and management
Flow paths and release points related to fixed platforms, TLPs or floaters
Vertical/horizontal/deviated wells
Frame conditions e.g. water depth, cold weather.

Latest development of BlowFAM

Through the latest development of BlowFAM, three additional modules were introduced. These are dealing with formation characteristics for adjustment of historical blowout frequencies, frequencies and probabilities of tailor-made blowout scenarios for input to event trees and frequencies of oil spill quantities from blowouts. All these modules give opportunities of selecting frames for the tool's data presentation appropriate for authorities and/or operator.

Field application of BlowFAM

BlowFAM has been applied all around the world:

Vigdis, Snorre (Saga Petroleum)
Eglin/Franklin (Elf Entreprise)
Snorre (Saga Petroleum)
Ekofisk 2/4 X, 2/4M (Phillips Petroleum Company)
Troll olje, Njord, Visund, Oseberg, Snorre, Tordis (Norsk Hydro)
Kristin (Statoil)
Shearwater (Shell Exploartion)
ETAP (BP and Shell)
Andrew (BP)
Exploration well drilling (Statoil)
Exploration well drilling (NAM)
Terra Nova (Petro Canada)
Kashagan (OKIOC)
Northstar (BP Alaska)
Girassol (TotalFinaElf)
Coville Delta North (Phillips Alaska)
Peng Lai (Phillips China)

Committee, licences and fees

BlowFAM Steering and User Group Committee meeting is held once a year. The Steering Committee makes decisions on activities and fees for the subsequent year. The sponsors attend with one vote each in the Steering Committee. Any other company can purchase a licence, without a right of seat in the Steering Committee, to a reduced price.

Scandpower Risk Management AS has extensive world-wide experience of blowout studies by use of BlowFAM and also personnel with experience from offshore well operations.

Sponsors of BlowFAM development have been: